"Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?"
- Robert Orben
With the Iowa Republican Caucuses set to get underway tonight, the Political New Year is here. In the great tradition of annual prognostications, here are six political predictions for 2012. Whether I'm right or wrong, it's going to be an exciting year for politics.
1.) Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination.
Santorum will win Iowa (or maybe Paul), but Romney will win New Hampshire. From there on out, Romney will win most major contests that don't take place in the South. He's the only one with the organization and the money who is not named Ron Paul. Plus, Romney is the only Republican who doesn't regularly say things that make him unelectable and doesn't have fatal flaws. The Republican Party is pretty crazy, but they won't nominate a nominee with zero prospects against Obama. Ron Paul will be a minor presence in the race, but he is simply unacceptable to the majority of GOP voters and elites. The others will fade from view by mid-March. The Anyone-but-Romney Coalition can't decide what it wants, nor is there any viable alternative. Expect Romney to have it sown up by Super Tuesday. He may not be a Tea Party darling, a social conservative crusader, or an Audit the Fed crazy. But he'll have survived the nomination generic Republican.
2.) Marriage equality wins in Maryland, Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.
Minnesota will likely be the first state to reject a constitutional amendment enshrining marriage discrimination in their state constitution. It simply isn't 2004 anymore. Even if support for marriage equality hasn't reached a critical mass, support for overt discrimination has collapsed. Especially in a state like Minnesota. Defensive win.
Maine had marriage equality. Maine repealed marriage equality. Same-sex marriage will likely be on the Maine ballot again this year. After a narrow defeat in 2009, expect it to pass with a healthy margin in 2012. Public opinion is shifting quickly, pro-equality campaigns are getting better at articulating a positive pro-family/pro-good neighbor message, and a boost from presidential turnout should help. Offensive win.
Maryland came close to legislating marriage equality in 2011, but intra-party squabbling killed the bill. After Mario Cuomo became a progressive rock star during his deft handling of marriage quality in New York, expect fellow 2016 Democratic presidential nominee prospect Governor Martin O'Malley to push hard in Maryland next year for the legislature to act. Offensive win.
The Tea Party dominated legislature in New Hampshire will try to repeal marriage equality there, but will fail miserably. It will be a public relations nightmare for them. Defensive win.
3.) The Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives.
But barely. The Democrats will net approximately 18 seats, +/- 5, bringing them within inches. It's hard to forecast so many individual races, but based on my sense of how the 2012 campaign will play out, the current Congress will be a popular target for everyone. Redistricting will end up being close to a wash for both parties, the Republicans having so few states to improve their standing in, while a more balanced national mood will see the Republican tide of 2010 recede.
4.) Democrats maintain control of the Senate.
But barely. I'll give specifics on this one, since I'm feeling foolhardy. The Democrats will control 51 seats, and so will maintain control regardless of the outcome of the presidential election. Democrats will lose North Dakota and Nebraska, and two of Missouri, Montata, and Virginia (in that order of likelihood). Republicans will lose Massachusetts and Nevada. No wave election this year.
5.) Mitt Romney chooses a Hispanic running mate.
An attempt to broaden the coalition will turn ugly as it will serve to only highlight the GOP's racist undercurrents and extreme policies. Marco Rubio is the obvious choice. Even though there are pitfalls to discussing immigration for both Obama and Romney, Romney has a much more unruly base. (There's a small chance he goes with Nikki Haley...but a woman in her first term as Governor of a small state...not to cast aspersions on Governor Haley, but the last time it didn't turn out well.) What should have helped boost the Republican performance in a key demographic, will do just the opposite, and contribute to number six...
6.) Obama wins reelection.
Obama will win reelection with no fewer than 300 Electoral Votes and no fewer than 50% of the votes. The economy will be functional and the recovery will be improving just enough to keep the campaign from being on the defensive the entire time. Mitt Romney will have a hard time keeping enthusiasm among the Republican base alive, the key to Republican 2010 victories, while not alienating most voters. Median Voter Theorem prevails in 2012. Obama's successful strategy will be to highlight the choice voters have: pragmatic policies, even if they aren't the most popular -or the GOP platform on those same issues, which the general election voters clearly dislike by large majorities. As much as the GOP would like it to be, this will not be an referendum on Obama. The Obama campaign and its allies will have massive amounts of funding, more than the Republicans and their allies, and Obama will drive home the "choice" message with every campaign flyer, speech, talking point memo, and advertisement.
Key Demographic: Latinos + African Americans + Labor > Older Americans + Republican Base
Key States: Obama loses only Indiana and Florida from his 2008 roster (Obama 318, Romney 220). Other Obama possible wins in order of likelihood: Arizona, Florida (up to Obama 358). Other Romney possible wins: North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada (up to Romney 267).
Overall, a pretty disastrous campaign for Romney. He won't be able to keep his head above water. The big mistake people make in estimating Obama's chances is discounting his sleeping campaign machine. No mores soaring rhetoric from Obama, no more hope or change, it's going to be "me or them." And the country will go with The Adult in the Room.
Bonus Prediction: Hillary Clinton does NOT replace Joe Biden on the Democratic Ticket.
If this happens, I resign my commission as a political prognosticator immediately.
