On This Election Eve

"Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?"     - Robert Orben

Ten months ago I made six predictions for the 2012 elections.  Romney won the Republican nomination as I predicted, albeit not quite as handily and a bit more annoyingly.  On the other hand, Romney didn't pick Florida Senator Marco Rubio as his running mate.  I guess I underestimated the Republican obsession with orthodox conservative white men.  The other four predictions will be put to their final test tomorrow, but one out of two isn't bad.

I'll revisit all six of the predictions after the election results are final, but on this Election Eve, here's my final election forecast.  

You can find a Google Spreadsheet with a detailed breakdown of the numbers here.

1.) Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives.

Democrats will pick up between five and tens seats in the House.  It looks like the 2010 redistricting was a wash between the two parties, with Republican legislatures largely deciding to protect incumbents rather than spread themselves thinner and gamble on more seats.  There really wasn't any need to be greedy since Republicans hold their largest House majority in many decades.  The few instances of Republican redistricting that will knock out Democrats will be balanced by states where either Democratic legislatures or non-partisan commissions did the same to Republicans.

Similarly, polls have shown voters split down the middle on which party they would prefer control the House.  This is a substantial shift from 2010 when the electorate preferred a Republican House, but redistricting has limited the number of places Democrats could capitalize.  There just aren't enough competitive seats for Democrats to contest while defending their own.  In the absence of a wave election (like 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010), the partisan make up of the House is pretty much locked in by design.  The Republican tide of 2010 will recede a bit, but far from the 25 seats needed to shift control.  There have been so many wave elections in the past decade, all but one, we've forgotten about the structural resistance to partisan control shifting that has been built into the House.

2.) Democrats maintain control of the Senate.

Democrats entered the 2012 elections as underdogs in the Senate, defending 23 seats to the Republicans ten as a result of the 2006 elections. Most pundits declared it nearly impossible for Democrats to hold the Senate at the start of this cycle.  With substantial help from Republicans, it now looks certain Democrats will control the Senate in 2013, and perhaps with the same number of seats as they hold now.  Republicans were hurt by primaries where conservative candidates beat more electable moderates (Indiana and Missouri) and sudden retirements (Maine).  Democratic losses in Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota will be offset by pickups in Indiana, Maine, and Massachusetts.  There is the potential that surprise victories by great candidates in North Dakota and Montana will let Democrats actually add to their margin.

Not only will Democrats retain the Senate, their caucus is likely to be more liberal than it is now.  Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Mazie Hirono in Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, and even conservative Indiana Democrat Joe Donnelly are all more liberal than the Senators they are replacing  The Senate could be an unexpected bright spot for die-hard progressives.

3.) President Obama wins reelection.

The polls are simply not in Romney's favor.  Some pundits like to claim the race is a toss-up, citing numerous polls that have Obama and Romney within the margin of error.  Yes, the race is close, but it is also clearly tilting in Obama's favor.  Obama led in nine of thirteen national polls yesterday, Romney in none.  Obama led in 25 of 31 swing state polls, Romney in only six.  Either Obama will win or the polls are statistically biased against Romney.  The latter is possible, but not likely.  Obama is close to a 9-to1 favorite for reelection.  He's likely to carry all but Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina from his 2008 tally (303 Electoral Votes), winning approximately 50.5% of the popular vote.

Obama will be declared the winner some time around 11:30pm, with Ohio being called for the Obama.  Colorado and Virginia will not be called until at least the next day, those being the two closest states.  Pundits will be declaring how this "status quo" election is a message to politicians to "come together, leave partisan bickering behind, and solve the nation's problems."  Romney will graciously concede, Obama will give a swell address, no recounts of consequence.  A slim but solid victory - four more years.

Bonus: Marriage equality ballot questions win in Maine, Maryland, and Washington.